Diesel market in flux: US taps heating-oil reserve, Russia sends first cargo

Diesel can't catch a break — or a breather. Between the US dipping into its emergency heating-oil stash and Russia prepping its first sanctions-relief cargo for American shores, the distillate market is being pulled in every direction at once.

Diesel remains the epicenter of volatility, with ULSD spot near $5.07/gal and a diesel crack north of $110/bbl dwarfing gasoline's $23.54 crack. Tanker attacks near Hormuz, the Trump administration's move to tap the Northeast diesel reserve, and Russia's first US-bound diesel cargo under the new sanctions-relief deal are all colliding with J.P. Morgan warnings that none of these fixes close the supply gap this winter. Meanwhile refiners are cashing in on the margin surge — Citgo alone raised its 2026 profit outlook by $2 billion — even as retail diesel prices sit above $6.27/gal.